actually be competitive in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change among minority's despite the shifts in eligible voters. if this does get realize, let's say minority vote share goes up by couple of points, 26% as was in 2008 to 28% in 2012, and again if the white college graduate and minority support stays about the same, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been runnin

. 2008, a 15-point of vantage for john mccain, but the polls coming out of pennsylvania again and again show is not doing any better than-15. so basically the state is looking very similarly in terms of its to graphics how the demographics trail for the political support as it did in 2008. the same thing applies to the geographical distribution. you look at how obama is running in the suburbs, similar to how he ran in 2008 and so on. so definitely looking like advantage obama in pennsylvania. michigan is another state where the romney campaign thought they might have iran. this is not happening. michigan is pretty decisively on the side of obama. the geographical pattern of the vote. about as well in the edge for a mature area. the statewide vote in 2008. they're just not much going on there. wisconsin is a state where obviously if there were going to crack the midwest given what's happening with ohio they thought perhaps they could do it in wisconsin. the problem is twofold for them, i think. if you look at the level of demographic change that has taken place in wisconsin, it's actuall

more aggressive. we'll ask senator john mccain what romney should be doing. >> the turbulence continues at american now that the airline is threatening to take its pilots to court to put an end to all those flight cancellations. >> we begin this morning with a look at today's eye opener. your world in 90 seconds. >>> standing ovations. league reaches a deal wednesday night with the association. >> simultaneous smile. >> the nfl and league officials end the three month lockout. >> regular referees will be on the field starting with thursday night's game. >> the deal which must be ratified by the union will happen on friday. >> the media has finally taken a stand on an issue on this day and said let's bring our boys home. >> i want to see us export more jobs, export more products, excuse me. i was channelling my opponent there for a second. >> the obama campaign engaging in character assassination? >> oh, sure. >> four military guards died in back-to-back suicide car bombs. >> hundreds of passengers endure a frightening landing at kennedy airport. >> a dying man's chip may lead

. romney is good in a group setting, hasn't done a lot of one on one. the president, john mccain wasn't the best debater either. >> i talked to nathan sproul, how much ground romney has to gain, could be as much as seven points, that's a lot to gain through a debate performance. two guys can be well prepared, one sitting president. >> he did against bush. >> it is not the debate, what is it for mitt romney in the last five weeks of the campaign to change it. >> i think he has to go big, has to have a couple of really big ideas that connect with the american people and where they are. the economy is slowly getting better. there are real doubts about the medicare plan paul ryan put in place, it is beginning to hurt them in battleground states. i don't think there's one thing that can turn it around for him except the ufo theory which i keep coming back to. just had it again with the terrorist attack on the libyan embassy. things like that can change the elections very quickly. you remember when john kerry ran against george bush on the friday before the election, osama bin laden came out